Sunk Costs: The Big Misconception About Most Investments

Imagine you place a $5,000 non-refundable deposit on a venue for your wedding, but later decide to call everything off. What would be the cost of canceling? If you think it’s $5,000, you fell for what’s known as the sunk cost fallacy — a common cognitive bias.

From an economic perspective, it’s what we give up going forward with the decision to cancel and does not include the cost of the venue rental, because no matter whether we get married or not we’re out the $5,000. That choice has already been made and is irreversible. It has become what we call a sunk cost. Because sunk costs cannot be changed going forward, they are not relevant to the next decision.

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合作者
腳本: Jonas Koblin and Jonas Jaquet
藝術家: 帕斯卡爾·加傑利
語音: 馬特·雅培
染色: 那琳
編輯: Peera Lertsukittipongsa
聲音設計: 米格爾·奧赫達
生產: 賽琳娜巴多爾
校對: 蘇珊

原聲帶
Cannonball Swing – RimskyMusic

深入挖掘這些熱門視頻, 遊戲和資源:

Listen to Annie Duke talk about the power of quitting
Research on Animal decision-making and the ‘Concorde fallacy’
Read how researchers are measuring the sunk costs fallacy by presenting people with questions about what they would do in various hypothetical scenarios.
Economist Mary Hirschfeld talks with Russ Roberts about the nature of our economic activity. The conversation includes a critique of economic theory, including regarding sunk cost as a fallacy.
An overview of the sunk costs fallacy.

來源
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost
The Psychology of Sunk Cost – Hal Arkes and Catherine Blumer (1985)
http://www.communicationcache.com/uploads/1/0/8/8/10887248/the_psychology_of_sunk_cost.pdf
The Sunk Cost and Concorde Effects: Are Humans Less Rational than Lower Animals – Hal Arkes and Peter Ayton (1999)
http://www.americandreamcoalition.org/transit/sunkcosteffect.pdf
Mary Hirschfeld on Sunk Costs
https://www.econtalk.org/mary-hirschfeld-on-economics-culture-and-aquinas-and-the-market/

CLASSROOM ACTIVITY
Visit our website to access suggested classroom activity on this topic.

CHAPTER
00:00 介紹
00:37 Jimmy’s story
01:15 Sunk cost fallacy
01:56 experiment by Hal Arkes & Catherine Blumer
02:30 3 psychological reasons behind this behavior
03:14 What was your experience
03:40 Patrons credits
03:50 結尾

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